Vietnam's Geoeconomic Features: Advantages and Problems

Geographical features which are mostly considered as privileges to Vietnam are now dragging the country into some international issues namely the South China Sea, The US - China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. The research points out unique geographical features of Vietnam and how they have been used to Vietnam's national interest. Then, the research underlines some noteworthy impacts of specific current geographical issues on Vietnam's and regional economy. By stating and analyzing these issues, the evaluation of the government's economic policies in response can be further clarified. Ultimately, the research provides implications for foreign governments and investors in future cooperation or investment in Vietnam.

The covid-19 crisis in the disruption of the international order:The Pandemic as hegemonic shock in the dispute between United States and China

EXTENDED The competition between powers to consolidate a hegemonic position on the international scene has been a recurrent object of study in International Relations, giving rise to numerous analyses of the evolution of the phenomenon of global hegemony. The global Covid-19 crisis has introduced a new element into the analysis of relations between states, as it has revealed the asymmetries that exist not only in managing the pandemic, but also in acquiring and/or maintaining a dominant position on the current geopolitical chessboard. This disruptive event has affected the competitive relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China, players who were engaged in a strategic competition for global hegemony.With this starting point, the direction of our research hypothesizes that the pandemic has been a determining element in the evolution and intensification of the competition for hegemony between the United States and the People's Republic of China. If up to now hegemonic disputes have been resolved through conflicts between contenders or in the context of war, in our opinion the pandemic could be a disruptive element that determines the evolution of the US-China competition and conditions which actor will be hegemonic and which model of hegemony will be implemented in the long term. With this starting point, we will elaborate a theoretical framework to understand the phenomena of the rise and fall of hegemonic powers. Starting from a theoretical approach to hegemony, we will include elements of analysis that will allow a deeper understanding of how disputes in the field of hegemony take place at present. In line with this objective, the key elements we will use will be: the theory of complex interdependence developed by Joseph Nye and Robert Keohane, the importance of the post-war international system, Seva Gunitsky's conceptualization of hegemonic shocks, and the influence that the nuclear variable has on the current geopolitical chessboard.Going deeper into the theoretical realm, authors such as Wallerstein or Agnew contribute to establishing the basis for understanding hegemony at a conceptual level. However, hegemony does not take a simple definition as it is part of an adaptive process. Due to this adaptability, authors such as Kindleberger or Gilpin offer us a starting point to understand how hegemonic transitions take place and provide us with tools to understand these processes. Although the authors of reference in the field of international politics offer us a solid basis for understanding the processes of hegemony, it is necessary to bring to the discussion the current debates on this object of study. Therefore, these analyses will be complemented by current authors, where we highlight mainly two: Graham Allison and Seva Gunitsky. With regard to Allison's contribution, we will briefly analyze his theorization of the Thucydides Trap and consider whether a conventional war between powers aspiring to conquer hegemony is still inevitable today. In the case of Gunitsky, we will focus on his conceptualization of hegemonic shocks, arguing from a scientific point of view that disputes between great powers do not necessarily end in a conventional war, but these shocks are the elements that end up facilitating hegemonic transitions. Subsequently, we will analyze the influence of three elements that in our opinion are conditioning processes of hegemony and conditioning hegemonic transitions at the present time. These three elements are: the post-war international system, complex interdependence and the nuclear capability of states. These three elements limit the ability of the great powers to initiate a conventional war between the hegemon and the contenders. The international system establishes a unity of action between the United States and Europe that different countries respect or fear to challenge, while economic, political and social dependencies result in reciprocal effects in case of conventional war and the nuclear variable discourages war between nuclear powers due to Mutually Assured Destruction. These elements condition the current disputes between the United States and China, forcing both contenders to seek new strategies to advance in the consolidation of a dominant position. In addition, these limitations mean that the hegemonic shocks theorized by Gunitsky become a key element in understanding how hegemonic disputes are currently settled. After providing sufficient theoretical elements to understand the current global situation, we will move on to the empirical part by analyzing three areas in order to conclude whether the pandemic has been a determining factor between the two actors. Understanding the complexity of operationalizing concepts such as hegemony and hegemonic disputes, it is essential to provide our research with empirical elements. Therefore, the theoretical analysis will be complemented with the analysis of quantitative and qualitative variables to confirm or refute our hypothesis. To do so, we will start with a comparative analysis between the United States and China in the economic sphere to determine to what extent the pandemic has affected competition between both actors and we will analyze the evolution of the pandemic data in both countries. We will analyze various economic aspects because an intensification of economic disputes is a symptom of the hegemon's loss of power, and we will be able to observe whether its economic supremacy is threatened by China. After focusing on economic variables, it is essential to analyze the infections and deaths caused by Covid-19. This is due to the fact that the internal management of the pandemic is an element of great importance since, in addition to measuring the capacities of the health systems, it contributes to offer an image of leadership and a reference to the rest of the actors. Finally, after addressing the empirical data, we will analyze the diplomatic strategies that both actors have used in dealing with the global crisis. While measurable data may reflect certain objectifiable trends regarding the impact of Covid-19 on the U.S.-China dispute, analysis of the diplomatic strategies developed by both actors is also important. At this point, we will analyze those carried out by the United States and China, focusing mainly on Beijing's strategy because it has proved to be a more complex. For this purpose, we will analyze the coronavirus diplomacy developed by Beijing, establishing itself as a major supplier of medical supplies globally and the enhancement of its soft power following its response to the coronavirus crisis. In the case of the United States, we will focus more briefly on the communicative strategy followed by the Trump administration after the outbreak of the crisis.

China and global value chain restructuring

Global value chains have been a major means of manufacturing and trading goods internationally. Economic efficiency was the sole factor driving the proliferation of GVCs and the China-centered GVCs were established in a variety of manufactured products. In recent years, the China-US trade war and the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic have sent shock waves and disrupted smooth operations of GVCs, which has triggered the geographic restructuring of GVCs, in particular value chain diversification away from China. This paper analyzes the centrality of China in value chains and the vulnerabilities of GVCs exposed to the trade war and the pandemic. This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence on GVC restructuring from different perspectives and discusses policy options that China could cope with the tide of the value chain diversification.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Estrangement of US-China Relations

This article assesses US-China relations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, the US-China trade war created an atmosphere of bitterness and mistrust in bilateral relations and also prompted the Chinese leadership to seek to enhance its "discourse power" through "wolf warrior" diplomacy. This atmosphere hampered US-China communication and cooperation during the initial phase of the pandemic. The unleashing of "wolf warrior" diplomacy as the pandemic spread round the world, especially in the United States, has exacerbated US-China relations and served to accelerate the transition of US policy toward China from constructive engagement to strategic competition.

Trade policies, firm strategies, and adaptive reconfigurations of global value chains

The recent U.S.–China trade conflicts cast new light on the role of trade policies in global value chains (GVCs). Contrary to the expectation that trade restrictions lead to the shrinking or disruption of GVCs, our article posits that the unintended consequences of trade policies (both restrictions and trade agreements) are amplified by the prevalence and organizational complexity of GVCs. We anchor our argument in the historical evolution of three classic GVCs – apparel, automobiles, and electronics – from the 1970s to the present. Our framework highlights the dynamic interaction between GVC-oriented trade policies and firm strategies, which often has counterintuitive implications in terms of upgrading outcomes for the countries and companies involved in these GVCs. While trade policies often provide momentum for an adaptive reconfiguration of GVCs, firms’ strategic actions are crucial in modifying the geographic and organizational features of GVCs in ways that support their longevity. Firm strategies can mediate the effect of trade policies on GVC configurations in two ways: (1) firms can accommodate trade restrictions and trade agreements by altering supply and demand locations and by switching supply-chain partners;and (2) firms pursue diverse strategies to upgrade their value chain activities, leveraging the shifting geographies associated with new trade rules.

Redesigning global supply chains during compounding geopolitical disruptions: the role of supply chain logics

Purpose Why do managers redesign global supply chains in a particular manner when faced with compounding geopolitical disruptions? In answering this research question, this study identifies a constrained system of reasoning (decision-making logic) employed by managers when they redesign their supply chains in situations of heightened uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted 40 elite interviews with senior supply chain executives in 28 companies across nine industries from November 2019 to June 2020, when the UK was preparing to leave the European Union, the US-China trade war was escalating, and Covid-19 was spreading rapidly around the globe. Findings When redesigning global supply chains, the authors find that managerial decision-making logic is constrained by three distinct environmental ecosystem conditions: (1) the perceived intensity of institutional pressures;(2) the relative mobility of suppliers and supply chain assets;and (3) the perceived severity of the potential disruption risk. Intense government pressure and persistent geopolitical risk tend to impact firms in the same industry, resulting in similar approaches to decision-making regarding supply chain design. However, where suppliers are relatively immobile and supply chain assets are relatively fixed, a dominant logic is consistently present. Originality/value Building on an institutional logics perspective, this study finds that managerial decision-making under heightened uncertainty is not solely guided by institutional pressures but also by perceptions of the severity of risk related to potential supply chain disruption and the immobility of supply chain assets. These findings support the theoretical development of a novel construct that the authors term 'supply chain logics'. Finally, this study provides a decision-making framework for Senior Executives competing in an increasingly complex and unstable business environment.

The United States-China conflict and the perspectives of the "strategic decoupling"

The article reviews China's rapid rise in the world economy over the last two decades and its implications for global economic governance and, in particular, for China's growing tensions with the United States. Relevant milestones such as China's entry into the World Trade Organization (wto), the subprime crisis, and the covid-19 pandemic are examined. The transition from the trade war between the two powers to a conflict for dominance of the main technologies of the 21st century is documented. The article ends with a reflection on the possible impacts of this conflict on the global economic scene. © 2022 Fondo de Cultura Economica. All rights reserved.

The reshoring decision under uncertainty in the post-COVID-19 era

Purpose: Using insights from the supply chain resilience perspective and the international business literature, this study aims to investigate the determinants of firms’ decisions to reshore manufacturing under the high levels of uncertainty brought about by the ongoing US–China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The proposed conceptual framework is tested using survey data collected from 702 Taiwanese firms with manufacturing in China. The firms were drawn from a database compiled by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. Findings: The results show that two supply chain factors (tariffs and supply chain completeness) and two non-location-bound factors (labor cost and material cost) are critical determinants of the decision to reshore under uncertainty. Originality/value: This research elucidates and empirically validates several factors that influence the reshoring decision in uncertain environments. The findings provide valuable theoretical, practical and strategic insights into how firms should manage their value chains in the post-COVID-19 era. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.

A trade way and a pandemic: Disruption and resilience in the food bank supply chain

Supply chain turbulence has become the new normal – and understanding supply chain resilience is essential for business-to-business firms. Dynamic capabilities theory provides the foundation for examining three literature gaps on supply chain resilience: resource reconfiguration during high impact disruptions;resilience across multiple supply chain levels;and resilience when government is involved. The food bank supply chain is examined during the turbulence of 2018–2020 from the U.S.-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the trade war, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shifted agricultural commodities intended for export to food banks, creating scale and scope supply shocks, and this was followed by food demand and supply shocks from the pandemic. In-depth interviews were conducted with supply chain members, from farmers to processing firms to food banks. Qualitative analysis provides detailed perspectives on three stages of supply chain resilience: anticipating, adapting and responding, and recovery and learning. The trade war responses built resilience during the pandemic by leveraging dynamic capabilities and frugal innovation, and by building social capital and public/private partnerships. From the specific insights for food banks emerged broader insights for business-to-business firms, in the form of twelve propositions for building supply chain resilience to high impact disruptions. © 2022

COVID-19 and American Attitudes toward U.S.-China Disputes.

The COVID-19 outbreak has fueled tension between the U.S. and China. Existing literature in international relations rarely focuses on virus outbreaks as factors affecting international relations between superpower countries, nor does research examine an outbreak's potential influence on the public's opinion about their country's foreign policy. To bridge this research gap, this study explores the extent to which the American public may be prone to favor policies that "punish" China via existing U.S.-China disputes, such as the South China Sea dispute and the U.S.-China trade war. I conducted an online survey using Amazon's Mechanical Turk and ran multinomial and ordered logit models to estimate the association between an individual's preferred policies and the country or government an individual blame for the impact of the pandemic. After controlling several essential confounding factors, such as one's levels of nationalism and hawkishness, I found strong evidence that there is a positive association between people's attribution of blame to the Chinese government and the likelihood of supporting aggressive policy options in the two disputes with China. That is to say, U.S. citizens who believe that the Chinese government is solely culpable for the outbreak in the U.S., compared to those who think otherwise, are more likely to support hawkish policy options, such as confrontational military actions, economic sanctions, or higher tariff rates. The research provides a glimpse into where Americans may stand in these disputes with China and the potential development of U.S.-China relations in the post-pandemic era.

The United States and China: Deadlocks and Paradoxes of Trade War.

The current relations between the United States and China, which are largely defined by the phrase trade war, are analyzed. The authors place an emphasis on the economic, political, and legal aspects of these relations and the direct and indirect consequences of the trade war for both its participants and the world community. Attention is focused on the first months of 2020, when, in particular, a trade and economic agreement was signed between the parties. Individual sections of the agreement are considered, including those related to intellectual property; the promotion of American medicines to the Chinese market; and China's obligations to purchase American manufactured goods, agricultural products, and fuels. A brief excursion into the history of the trade war is undertaken, the position of the parties is shown, and key problems of the dialogue are identified. New factors affecting this dialogue are considered: the recession that has begun in the global economy and the emergence and spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The actions of the parties to respond to the new challenges are evaluated.

COVID-19 and Alternative Conceptualisations of Value and Risk in GPN Research.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major disturbance that has rippled across the world's population, states, economy, and central nervous system or global production networks transforming the traditional roles of states, firms, individuals/consumers, and geographies of production. This paper offers a critical and context-based approach to understanding globalization and localization by challenging the conceptualization of 'value' and 'risk' within the current global production networks framework as well as identifying key operational strategies in risk management and national security. An analysis of the adaptation strategies of the GPNs of 91 companies identifies the role played by four different forms of value in configuring production networks. This is to balance 'economic value' with non-price-based sources of value and alternative values. The analysis underscores the critical role of the state in ensuring national and human security as well as its increasing power as a key actor in GPNs and the global economy.